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cloud_zhou - 2008/7/17 14:41:00
A fascinating discussiona few weeks ago in welling@weeden with Albert Edwards and James Montierof Société Générale is republished below with the necessary permission. http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/montier.pdf "One other thing that I like to point out is the liquidity effect on commodities and emerging markets. We’ve had one liquidity bubble go pop with the credit crunch. But there’s another one still to unravel, which is the change in the U.S. current deficit. While it was blowing out, it acted as a huge liquidity pump for the rest of the world because the emerging economies intervened to hold their currencies down. So a chart of EM reserves goes up vertically and hasn’t come down yet. But what I am highlighting is, hey, if the U.S. economy is going into a recession now, which it probably is, then we’re moving to a different phase. Housing was the least import-sensitive component of U.S. domestic demand. So the housing crash hasn’t really impacted the trade deficit all that much in the U.S. But now the credit crisis’ impact is moving into consumption, which is the most import-sensitive component. So it’s likely that you’re going to get a rapid decline in the U.S. current account deficit over the next 6 to 12 months, which means the emerging economies’ surpluses come down very sharply, so they don’t have to intervene so much in their currencies — which means the growth in their money supplies collapses, which means the growth of liquidity in their economies collapses. Any analysis of what drives emerging market growth rates and emerging market equities and bond performance, shows that the printing of money by these emerging economies’ central banks has been a huge factor in bolstering their economies. But that is going into reverse in the next 6 to 12 months, in a major way. The reserves will still grow, but at a much, much slower rate. That will produces a big sucking noise in terms of the impetus for emerging market growth, and actually put downward pressure on commodities. If you blow up the emerging market growth story, then you kick away the crutch for the secular bull market in commodities for a while."
jmh007 - 2008/7/18 22:35:00
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